في دول الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا Samuelson-Balassa تحليل أثر

Abstract

The study aimed to measure the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on the real effective exchange rate in Middle Eastern and North African countries, This was done by analyzing the relationship between total factor productivity (TFP), the terms of trade, net foreign assets, the inflation rate, and institutional quality, and the extent of the impact of these factors on the real effective exchange rate. The study relied on the descriptive approach in the theoretical aspect, while the quantitative econometric approach was used in the applied aspect ,by applying the panel auto-regressive distributed lag model (panel ARDL) to annual data for the period extending from 2000 to 2019, using Stata17.0 software, The study concluded that there is a clear impact of the study variables on the real effective exchange rate in Middle Eastern and North African countries, where the total factor productivity affects the real effective exchange ratenegatively, which supports the hypothesis of the Balassa-Samuelson, The Terms of trade play an important role in determining the real effective exchange rate, and there is an inverse relationship between the inflation and the real effective exchange rate in the region, and the institutional quality has a positive effect on exchange rate stability, Thus, this indicates that all variables play a crucial role in explaining the movement and changes in the real effective exchange rate in the region, which confirms the existence of the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Middle Eastern and North African countries.