إستدامة الموازنة العامة في الدول الريعية، دراسة مقارنة بين نماذج الجزائر و النرويج و الإمارات العربية المتحدة

Abstract

This study conducts a comparative analysis of fiscal sustainability across three rentier economies (Algeria, the UAE, and Norway). Despite their shared oil abundance, their trajectories toward financial stability varied significantly; while Norway and the UAE succeeded in institutionalizing flexible governance and genuine diversification that absorbed shocks, the Algerian budget suffered from persistent structural exposure due to its organic linkage to rent and a lack of institutional efficacy. Econometrically, using the NARDL model for the 1991–2023 time series, the empirical results proved the existence of a comprehensive symmetric response to oil shocks in Algeria, confirming the absence of financial insulation mechanisms. Conversely, Norway exhibited selective sensitivity (asymmetry), reflecting the efficiency of its strict fiscal rules and wealth decoupling, while the UAE recorded a sharp short-term response, indicating that its budget remains structurally tied to oil despite its macroeconomic flexibility and capacity for diversification.