النمذجة القياسية لأثر التنويع الاقتصادي على النمو الاقتصادي بالجزائر للفترة 1996-2024

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of economic diversification on economic growth in Algeria during the period 1996–2024. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology, both short-run and long-run relationships were examined between non-hydrocarbon GDP (LN_NHGDP) as the dependent variable and a set of independent variables, namely export concentration (HHI), non-hydrocarbon revenues (LNNHR), their interaction term (LNNHR_HHI), and domestic credit to the private sector (LNDC). The results reveal the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. Furthermore, the study found a significant negative impact of export concentration on growth in both the short and long term, highlighting the importance of diversification. Non-hydrocarbon revenues also showed a negative relationship with growth, whereas domestic credit had a strong positive effect. The positive coefficient of the interaction term suggests that higher nonhydrocarbon revenues may mitigate the adverse effects of export concentration. The study offers policy recommendations to strengthen economic diversification efforts in Algeria.