أثر تقلبات سعر الصرف على الواردات في الجزائر دراسة قياسية للفترة الممتدة من 2004 إلى 2024

Abstract

"This study analyzed the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the volume of imports in Algeria during the period (2004-2024), aiming to evaluate the responsiveness of foreign goods demand to changes in the value of the Algerian Dinar. The econometric results demonstrated high efficiency of the model, with an explanatory power of 99.34%, confirming that the exchange rate is a decisive variable in determining the import bill. The study concluded that the Algerian import structure is characterized by rigidity and insufficient elasticity in the short term due to the heavy reliance on capital goods and essential food items. Nevertheless, the findings proved the effectiveness of the monetary policy adopted at the end of the study period; the decision to appreciate the Dinar contributed to curbing ""imported inflation"" and alleviating the cost burden on the national economy. Furthermore, structural stability tests confirmed that the monetary authorities succeeded in managing the exchange rate in a manner that shielded the economy from unexpected shocks"