الفساد وأثره على التنويع الإقتصادي دراسة حالة الجزائر

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of corruption on economic diversification in Algeria over the period 1995–2024 Through an integrated Approach combining Theoretical analysis, descriptive analysis, and Econometric modeling. It seeks to explain the nature of the Relationship between corruption and economic diversification and to assess the direct and indirect effects of corruption Through productive Investment, Considered the main transmission channel of this impact. The importance of the study stems from the fact that corruption is one of the major Institutional factors hindering Algeria's transition from a hydrocarbon-dependent rentier economy to a more diversified and sustainable economy. The theoretical part of the study is based on a descriptive-analytical approach. The first chapter examines the conceptual framework of corruption, its causes, economic consequences, and anti-corruption mechanisms, while analyzing the evolution of corruption in Algeria and its legal and institutional framework. The second chapter addresses the conceptual framework of economic diversification, the issues of the rentier economy, the resource curse, and Dutch disease, drawing on the Norwegian experience as a comparative benchmark. It also analyzes the state of economic diversification in Algeria using a set of quantitative indicators, including sectoral diversification of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), diversification of public revenues, and export diversification. The empirical part employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach through two complementary econometric models. The first model estimates the impact of corruption on productive Investment, while the second assesses the effect of corruption on economic diversification by incorporating productive Investment as a mediating variable to examine its role as a transmission channel, while controlling for a set of relevant economic and Institutional variables. The findings Reveal a Statistical Significant negative effect of corruption on productive investment in both the short and the long run. They also show that the decline in productive investment adversely affects the level of economic diversification. These results confirm that corruption influences economic diversification not only directly but also indirectly by weakening productive investment, thereby contributing to the persistence of the fragile productive structure of the Algerian economy and its continued dependence on hydrocarbon rents. The study concludes that achieving effective and sustainable economic diversification in Algeria requires, in addition to economic reforms, strengthening institutional quality, promoting good governance and transparency, enhancing the effectiveness of anti-corruption mechanisms, and improving the environment for productive investment. These measures are essential for broadening the productive base and fostering sustainable economic growth.