دراسة قياسية لأثر تغير سعر النفط على النمو الإقتصادي في الجزائر خلال الفترة (2024/1990)

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the impact of oil price changes on economic growth in Algeria during the period (1990–2024), using the Engle–Granger cointegration methodology and the Error Correction Model (ECM). An econometric model including two main variables was adopted, where oil price represents the independent variable, while economic growth represented by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) constitutes the dependent variable. The study revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between oil prices and economic growth in Algeria. The econometric estimation results also showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between the two variables, indicating that rising oil prices do not necessarily lead to sustainable economic growth due to the continued dependence on the hydrocarbon sector and the weak contribution of other productive sectors. In addition, the results of the Error Correction Model demonstrated that the impact of oil price changes appears more clearly in the long run than in the short run, along with the existence of a one-way causal relationship running from oil prices to economic growth according to the Granger causality test. Based on these findings, the study recommends several measures, the most important of which are: diversifying the economy outside the hydrocarbon sector, transforming oil revenues into sustainable human capital, and linking public spending to productivity indicators rather than to oil price levels.