العلاقة بين الادخار و الاستثمار في الجزائر

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and measure the relationship between savings and investment in Algeria over the period 1980–2024, using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Based on annual data from the World Bank, the study applied unit root tests (ADF), cointegration tests (Johansen), Granger causality tests, as well as impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis. The results show that savings and investment are integrated of order one I(1), with no long-term cointegration relationship between them. The Granger causality test reveals a unidirectional causal relationship running only from savings to investment. Impulse response functions indicate that a shock to savings has a strong and sustained impact on investment, while a shock to investment has a weak and short-lived effect on savings. These findings reflect the rentier nature of the Algerian economy. The study recommends diversifying savings sources, restructuring public investment, and developing the financial system