قياس نجاعة نماذج التنبؤ بالفشل المالي للشركات في ضوء أدائها المالي الفعلي - دراسة حالة مجمع بيوفارم خلال الفترة 2020-2024

Abstract

This study aims to highlight the relationship between the results of financial indicators and financial failure prediction models through a case study of the Biopharm Group during the period 2020–2024. The study relied on a set of financial indicators to evaluate the Group’s financial performance, in addition to the use of three financial failure prediction models, namely the Altman model, the Sherrod model, and the Springate model. The findings of the study revealed that the financial indicators generally reflected a good and stable financial position for the Group throughout the study period, as evidenced by acceptable levels of liquidity, profitability, activity, and financial structure, which indicates its ability to meet its obligations and maintain financial balance. The results of the financial failure prediction models also showed that both the Altman and Sherrod models classified the Group within the grey zone; however, the indicator values remained close to the safe zone thresholds, suggesting a low probability of financial failure. In contrast, the Springate model classified the Group within the safe zone throughout the study period. This reflects a relative convergence between the results of the financial indicators and those of the financial failure prediction models.