محددات سعر الصرف الموازي في الجزائر-دراسة قياسية- خلال الفترة(1994-2024)

Abstract

This study aims to identify the determinants of the parallel exchange rate in Algeria over the period from 1994 to 2024, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Five independent variables were adopted: the official exchange rate, inflation rate, foreign exchange reserves, remittances from migrants, and oil prices. The parallel exchange rate was considered the dependent variable in the study. The results showed that oil prices do not affect the parallel exchange rate, while remittances from migrants contribute to its decrease in the short term. Foreign exchange reserves were found to have a varying impact (positive or negative) in the short term. In the long term, the results revealed a positive and significant relationship between both the official exchange rate and inflation with the parallel exchange rate.