اثر ديناميكي لمؤشرات الطاقات المتجددة على عوائد اسهم شركات النفط العالمية الكبرى دراسة قياسية لفترة ممتدة 2022-2026

Abstract

This study aimed to analyse the dynamic impact of renewable energy indicators on the stock returns of major global oil companies during the period 2022–2026 using daily data. The study relied on the EGARCH model and a set of financial variables, including the U.S. Dollar Index (DYX), Brent crude oil prices (RBRENT), Exxon Mobil stock returns (REXXON), the S&P 500 index, the clean energy index (RSPCL), and the Volatility Index (VIX). The findings revealed that all-time series were stationary and characterized by high financial volatility, confirming the suitability of GARCH-family models for the analysis. The results also showed a positive and statistically significant impact of both the S&P 500 and VIX indices on Exxon Mobil stock returns, reflecting the close relationship between oil stocks and global economic activity, as well as their role as a relatively safe haven during periods of uncertainty. In contrast, the study identified a short-run decoupling between the renewable energy sector and the traditional oil sector, alongside a high persistence of volatility in energy markets.