أثر تقلبات اسعار النفط على النمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر - دراسة قياسية خلال الفترة (1996-2023)

Abstract

"This study aims to analyze and measure the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic growth in Algeria during the period (1996-2023), given the Algerian economy's heavy reliance on oil exports as a primary source of national income. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to measure the relationship between the variables, due to its ability to distinguish between short- and long-term effects.

The study concluded that there is a positive and significant relationship between oil prices and economic growth in both the short and long term, where a 1% increase in oil prices leads to a 0.24% rise in GDP. The results of the cointegration test also showed a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables."