دراسة نظرية إختلال التوازن في الدورات اإلقتصادية

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the concept of the Disequilibrium Theory in economic cycles within the Algerian economy. This theory posits that the economy is not always in a state of stable equilibrium or self- correcting balance but is instead subject to economic disturbances and external factors that impact equilibrium. These disruptions create gaps between supply and demand as well as between production and consumption, which may result in rising inflation rates and transitions between different phases of the economic cycle. In this context, the interconnection between various marketssuch as the goods and services market, the monetary market, and the labor marketbecomes evident, as each market influences and is influenced by the others. The study employed an econometric analysis based on annual data from the World Bank for the period spanning 1994 to 2022. Three econometric models were constructed: the first focused on variables related to the goods and services market, while the second analyzed the monetary market using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the dynamic relationships among the studied variables. For the labor market, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was applied. The findings indicated that the Algerian economy, during the analyzed period, was transitioning from a phase of contraction to a phase of expansion. The results also confirmed the strong interdependence among different markets, demonstrating that any imbalance in economic variables directly affects economic growth and leads to a decline in economic activity. Furthermore, the study highlighted that the Algerian economy is continuously exposed to disequilibrium in economic cycles due to its heavy reliance on oil revenues.