متطلبات اعتماد الس ياسة النقدية المثلى : 2019- دراسة حالة الجزائر 2003

Abstract

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models DSGE are a basic principle of optimal monetary policy that seeks to maintain, stabilize and economic balance. Taylor’s rule of rational expectations is the most importa nt feature that makes this policy’s successful implementation, responding to fluctuations in inflation and output, and tends to make these variables as stable as possible under normal conditions. Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic the ory in determining outcomes and formulating monetary policy. As a result, this study aimed to find out whether the DSGE model is stable in the long run And the interest rates announced by the Algerian Central Bank are in line with the mechanisms of the Taylor rule from 2003 to 2019. By applying the recognized statistical tools based on the method of the autoregressive model of the lagging distributed time gaps ARDL and the generalized momentum method GMM , and the study indicators represented in ( inflation, crude GDP, real interest rates and the real exchange rate) . This research concluded that the DSGE model is unstable And that the reactions of monetary policy in Algeria do not coincide with the application of Taylor's rule of expectations due to the absence of a basic production base far from fuel prices, and this is based on the results shown in the study according to the impact of inflation