النمذجة القياسية لأثر الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر على التنويع الاقتصادي في الجزائر خلال الفترة (1996-2024)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic diversification in Algeria over the period 1996-2024, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The analysis examines both short-run and long-run relationships between the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) as the dependent variable, and foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic credit to the private sector (DC), GDP per capita (GDPP), and trade openness (TO) as independent variables. The findings reveal the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Results indicate that FDI has a significant negative effect on economic diversification, whereas domestic credit and trade openness have positive and significant impacts. In contrast, GDP per capita shows a negative effect, reflecting the rentier nature of the Algerian economy. Short-run results also show mixed effects. Accordingly, the study recommends redirecting foreign investment toward productive non-hydrocarbon sectors and strengthening private sector financing to support economic diversification in Algeria.