التحول نحو الطاقة النظيفة وأثره على استقرار أسواق النفط

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of the transition toward clean energy on the stability of global oil markets by examining the dynamic relationship between alternative energy indicators and crude oil price volatility during the period from 25/02/2022 to 06/04/2026 using daily data. The study relied on a set of financial variables, including the Brent crude oil index (Brent), the S&P Clean Energy Index, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the Volatility Index (VIX), and the S&P 500 index. To measure volatility dynamics, the EGARCH model was employed due to its ability to capture asymmetric shocks and the leverage effect. The findings revealed that oil markets are characterized by high volatility persistence, with positive shocks exerting a stronger effect than negative shocks, confirming the existence of a limited leverage effect. The study also showed that the transition toward clean energy imposes structural pressures on oil markets by influencing global demand expectations, without leading to a complete replacement of oil in the short run. Therefore, the study highlights the importance of adopting economic diversification policies and integrating climate risks into financial governance frameworks.