دور تفاعل الإيرادات الجبائية غير النفطية و الانفاق الحكومي في تعزيز النمو الاقتصادي المستدام في الجزائر ( دراسة قياسية)

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the impact of non-oil tax revenues and government expenditure on economic growth in Algeria during the period 2000-2024, with a particular focus on examining the interactive effect between the two fiscal policy variables. To achieve this objective, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to investigate the relationship in both the short and long run. The findings revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between nonoil tax revenues, government expenditure, and economic growth, as confirmed by the significance of the error correction term and the speed of adjustment toward equilibrium following economic shocks. The results also indicated that non-oil tax revenues exert a negative and statistically significant effect on economic growth when considered independently, both in the short and long run. In contrast, government expenditure demonstrated a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run, despite exhibiting a negative effect in the short run. Furthermore, the study showed that the interaction variable between non-oil tax revenues and government expenditure has a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth in both the short and long term. This finding suggests that the effectiveness of tax revenues depends largely on the efficiency with which they are allocated toward productive public expenditure. The study concluded that achieving sustainable economic growth in Algeria depends not only on increasing non-oil tax revenues, but also on improving the efficiency of government expenditure and strengthening coordination between the two sides of fiscal policy. Such measures would contribute to diversifying revenue sources and reducing dependence on the hydrocarbon sector.