دور الأسواق المالية الناشئة في دعم النمو الاقتصادي دراسة قياسية لسوق المالي الماليزي خلال الفترة(1981/2022) باستخدام نموذج

Abstract

This study aims to determine the role of emerging financial markets in economic growth by examining the relationship between the dependent variable (gross domestic product) and the independent variables (inflation rate, traded stocks, domestic stock turnover ratio, total value of traded stocks, total market capitalisation of domestic companies (market capitalisation) and real interest rate) in the Malaysian financial market using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on annual time series data for the period from 1981 to 2022. The results showed that the appropriate model for the study is the ARDL(1.0.0.2.1.0) model, and accordingly, the study found an inverse statistically significant relationship between the value of the total market capitalisation of domestic companies (market capitalisation) variable and gross domestic product. This is often the case during economic recessions or financial crises, when the market value of companies may fall sharply due to lower profit expectations, while GDP may continue to grow for a short period before the impact of the crisis on the real economy is reflected. There is also a direct statistically significant relationship between the total value of shares traded and GDP in the short term. The results also show an inverse statistically significant relationship between the coefficients of variables (total market capitalisation of domestic companies, interest rates, traded shares and turnover ratio of domestic shares) and gross domestic product, and a direct statistically significant relationship between the coefficients of variables (inflation rate and total value of traded shares) and gross domestic product in the long run. "