النمذجة القياسية للتضخم في الجزائر للفترة الممتدة 1990-2022

Abstract

The study aimed to describe and analyze inflation as an economic phenomenon in Algeria for the period from 1990 to 2022, by defining it, its types, causes, and explanatory theories, along with mentioning some previous studies. We also addressed measuring inflation by modeling it with important indicators (Gross Domestic Product per capita, exchange rate, trade balance) and estimating the equilibrium relationships in the long term. As a first step, the stationarity of time series was tested using the Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. As a second step, the study used the Johansen cointegration methodology. The study concluded the existence of an inverse relationship between per capita GDP, exchange rate, and inflation in the long run, where an increase in per capita GDP by one unit (percentage point) led to a decrease in the inflation rate by 6.78 units (percentage points), and an increase in the exchange rate by one unit (percentage point) led to a decrease in the inflation rate by 0.08 units (percentage points). This aligns with economic theory and previous studies.