عدم مساعرة سعر الصرف في الجزائر

Abstract

The goal of this study is to assess misalignment of the Algerian real exchange rate (REER) through an empirical analysis by applying the bounds testing ARDL model. Our estimation of an ARDL model indicates, firstly, the existence of a long run positive relationship between the REER and the oil prices (see Cashin et al. (2002) and Koranchelian (2005)); Secondly, we detect a negative relationship between the REER and the terms of trade (Edwards, 1989 1994). In addition, we find that productivity computed on the basis of Solow model affects the Algerian REER. Moreover, our results show that a cointegration relationship is detected between the REER and Black market exchange rate in Algeria, and the negative impact emphasizes how the Algerian policymakers acting as an invisible hand instrument need to elaborate a convergence objective between the official and the black market exchange rates (Kamel and Benhabib, 2015).It is known that foreign exchange windfalls from hydrocarbon exports help swell Algerian public spending that would cater for public budget deficit curtailment, which implies that inefficiency in government expenditure is reflected by a statistical insignificance of the impact of public spending variable on the REER. Finally, the CUSUM (cumulative sum) and CUSUMSQ (CUSUM squared) tests are then introduced to check for the stability of the relationship in the short run dynamics within a long run equilibrium, Brown et al. (1975)