Modèle développementalisme de changement structurel, de croissance économique et de pièges à revenu intermédiaire

Abstract

When a fast-growing country stagnates at middle-income levels and fails to transition to a highincome economy, we are told that has fallen into a middle-income trap. An original interpretation of the causes of this phenomenon has been proposed in recent years by the so-called New Brazilian School of Developmentalist. It should be noted, however, that this approach lacks a coherent formalization of its main proposals. This article aims to fill this gap in the literature. We assess, analytically whether Dutch disease can be propelled by the discovery of natural resources and the adoption of an external savings growth strategy. In both cases, a class coalition between workers and rentiers leads to an overvaluation of the real exchange rate. As a result, inflation is brought under control while artificially increasing real wages and financial incomes. The model provides a bridge between classical development theory and demand-driven growth theories, drawing on elements of both traditions.